Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Predictiooooooooons.... Predictions.

Let's See Who Can Get Closest. I'll bump up from the Comments later in the day, so they're easier to see:

1) Electoral Votes for your winner of choice. Use CNN's Election Calculator for even more precision.
2)  Difference in Popular Vote Percentage.   Use "O +x.x%" for example.
3) Number of Senate Dems.  DO NOT INCLUDE Lieberman or Sanders (the Independents) in your count.  Right now, Dems have 49.  There are at least 5 pretty-solid pickups, for a seeming floor of 54.  That leaves, in order of polling chances for the Dems: OR, NC, MN, GA, KY, MS.
4)  Number of House Dems.  The current House is 232 to 200 (with 3 vacancies).
5)  Tipping State.  This is the same question as last week, and I think the most thought-provoking one, as you can't rely on any single poll to figure this out.  What state will be the one that the networks claim gives your candidate his 270 electoral votes and announces him as the winner?  It could be any state, since it depends on the chronology of how quickly each state's votes are counted.
6)  Turnout Compared to 2004.  In 2004, turnout was pegged at 60.7% -- the highest since 1968.  There seems to be a wide variance in the statistic though (this chart pegs 2004 at 55.3%, "but has a voting-age population 20 million people higher than the other figure), so a hard-number prediction will not work.  So, predict how many percentage points higher/lower turnout in 2008 will be than in 2004. (Still not perfect, I realize, but doable).
7)  Will John Murtha Pull Through?  Murtha is the longtime Rep from Johnstown, PA, but called his constituents racist, an assessment that no one agrees with, except for everyone.



UPDATE:  

Here's a handy sheet of everyone's guesses so far.  I have the low on the popular vote differential, but Jason has the low on electoral.  Yet, Jason also makes the apparent stunning prediction that Obama carries SC.  


Labels: